MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area (LPA) east of Eastern Samar has developed into tropical depression ‘Agaton’, the first tropical cyclone for 2022, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am update on Saturday, April 9, 2022.
|Satellite image of ‘Bagyong Agaton’ as of 5:50 am, April 9, 2022. Photo courtesy of DOST-PAGASA|
At 4:00 am today, the center of ‘Bagyong Agaton’ was estimated based on all available data at 120 km East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
‘Bagyong Agaton’ has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa.
TD ‘Agaton’ is moving slowly at west northwestward. Strong winds or higher extend outwards up to 140 km from the center.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS)
TCWS No. 1 (Strong winds prevailing or expected within the next 36 hours)
- Eastern Samar
- Dinagat Islands
- Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
Today through Monday, ‘Agaton’ is forecast to remain almost stationary as it meanders over the waters east of Eastern Visayas.
Due to the expected erratic nature of its movement, a landfall over the coast of Eastern Samar is possible. However, the tropical depression may begin turning southeastward or eastward on Tuesday as it interacts with the incoming tropical cyclone with international name ‘Malakas’.
‘Agaton’ is forecast to remain a tropical depression over the next three days, although there is marginal possibility of intensification into a tropical storm on Monday. However, the disturbance may degenerate into a remnant low by late Tuesday or early Wednesday as ‘Malakas’ begins to assimilate its circulation.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Today through tomorrow early morning: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Eastern Visayas, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Masbate, Sorsogon, and the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.
Tomorrow early morning through Monday early morning: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Eastern Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, the northern and central portions of Cebu including Bantayan and Camotes Islands, and Bohol. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Masbate, Sorsogon, and the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.
Under these conditions and considering significant antecedent rainfall, scattered to widespread flooding (including flooding) and rain-induced landslides are expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps.
Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale conditions) will be experienced within any of the areas where TCWS #1 is currently in effect during the passage of the tropical depression.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 4.5 m) will prevail over the seaboards of areas where TCWS #1 is hoisted and the northern and eastern coastal waters of Northern Samar. These conditions may be risky for most seacrafts.
Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to remain in port or take shelter, while those operating larger vessels are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
Under the influence of the prevailing northeasterly wind flow, a Gale Warning remains in effect for several coastal waters not under any wind signal, specifically the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #18 issued at 5:00 AM today.
In the next 24 hours, moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.4 m) will also prevail over the remaining seaboards of the country that are not under any wind signal or gale warning. These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
— The Summit Express