MANILA, Philippines – ‘Bagyong Fabian’ (international name: In-fa) continues to move slowly west northwestward, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am update on Tuesday, July 20, 2021.
At 4:00 am today, the center of Severe Tropical Storm ‘Fabian’ was estimated based on all available data at 1,035 km East Northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon.
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| Satellite image of Tropical Storm ‘Fabian’ as of 5:30 am, July 20, 2021. via DOST-PAGASA |
‘Bagyong Fabian’ has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 115 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa.
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal is currently in effect.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
‘Fabian’ will move generally west northwestward within the next 12 hours. Afterwards, the tropical cyclone will track westward beginning tonight or tomorrow early morning. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone will pass close or make landfall in the vicinity of Yaeyama, Miyako, and Senkaku Islands in the Ryukyu Archipelago on Thursday through Friday early morning.
The latest track forecast shows an increasing likelihood of landfall in the vicinity of northern Taiwan by Friday evening or Saturday early morning – the same time period ‘Fabian’ may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Outside the PAR, the cyclone is forecast to make another landfall in the vicinity of southeastern mainland China on Saturday evening or Sunday early morning.
It is forecast to further intensify and reach typhoon category tonight or tomorrow early morning. The tropical cyclone may reach its peak intensity of 150 km/h on Thursday. Gradual weakening may occur by Friday evening or Saturday early morning due to frictional effects of the rugged terrain of Taiwan. Rapid weakening post-landfall over mainland China is expected beginning on Saturday evening.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
‘Fabian’ is unlikely to bring heavy rainfall in the country throughout the forecast period.
Under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon that is being enhanced by ‘Fabian’ and Typhoon ‘Cempaka’ estimated at 975 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon (outside the PAR), monsoon rains will be experienced in the next 24 hours over Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Palawan.
Severe Winds
The latest forecast scenario shows that there is an increasing likelihood that Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1 may be hoisted over Batanes and Babuyan Islands. Residents and disaster managers in Batanes and Babuyan Islands are advised to continuously monitor the tropical cyclone bulletins.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by both ‘Fabian’ and ‘Cempaka’, rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 4.5 m) may be experienced over the seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands, and the western seaboard of Palawan (including Kalayaan and Calamian Islands) and Occidental Mindoro (including Lubang Islands).
Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts over these waters. Mariners without the proper experience should immediately seek safe harbor.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
‘Fabian’, the sixth tropical cyclone for 2021, developed into Tropical Depression while inside PAR on Friday, July 16.
PAGASA predicts that 1–3 tropical cyclones may enter the PAR this month.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
The weather agency declared the onset of the rainy season on Friday, June 5.
— The Summit Express