MANILA, Philippines – ‘Bagyong Fabian’ (international name: In-fa) slightly decelerates while moving west-southwestward, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am update on Wednesday, July 21, 2021.
At 4:00 am today, the center of Typhoon ‘Fabian’ was estimated based on all available data at 740 km East Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes.
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| Satellite image of Typhoon ‘Fabian’ as of 5:00 am, July 21, 2021. via DOST-PAGASA |
‘Bagyong Fabian’ has maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of 970 hPa. It is moving west southwestward at 10 km/h.
No Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal is currently in effect.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
‘Fabian’ will track west southwestward until tomorrow (July 22) morning, westward for the remainder of tomorrow through Friday (July 23) morning, then generally northwestward for the remainder of Friday through the end of the forecast period.
On the forecast track, ‘Fabian’ will pass close or make landfall in the vicinity of Yaeyama, Miyako, and Senkaku Islands of the Ryukyu Archipelago on Friday before exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Saturday (July 24) morning.
A northeastward shift in the later portion of the track forecast has been observed for the past several bulletin issuances.
The latest track forecast shows the cyclone moving over the coastal waters of northern Taiwan or make landfall in the vicinity of northern Taiwan by Saturday morning or afternoon. The tropical cyclone is also forecast to make another landfall in the vicinity of southeastern mainland China by Sunday (July 25).
‘Fabian’ is forecast to further intensify and reach its peak intensity of 155 km/h on Thursday evening. Gradual weakening may occur beginning on Saturday as the typhoon passes near or over the rugged terrain of Taiwan. The landfall over mainland China will result in the rapid weakening of “FABIAN” on Sunday.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
‘Fabian’ is unlikely to directly bring heavy rainfall in the country throughout the forecast period.
Under the influence of the Southwest Monsoon being enhanced by ‘Fabian’ and Severe Tropical Storm ‘Cempaka’ estimated at 1,030 km West of Extreme Northern Luzon or in the vicinity of Yangjiang, Guangdong, China (outside the PAR), monsoon rains will be experienced in the next 24 hours over Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, and the northern portion of Palawan (including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands).
Severe Winds
Due to the uncertainty in the later portion of the track forecast of ‘Fabian’, the hoisting of Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 over Batanes and Babuyan Islands remains a possibility. Residents and disaster managers in Batanes and Babuyan Islands are advised to continuously monitor the tropical cyclone bulletins.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
In the next 24 hours, under the influence of the enhanced Southwest Monsoon and ‘Fabian’, rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 4.5 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands, and the western seaboard of Palawan (including Kalayaan and Calamian Islands) and Occidental Mindoro (including Lubang Islands).
Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) will also prevail over the eastern and the rest of the northern and western seaboards of Luzon. Sea travel is risky for small seacrafts over these waters.
Mariners without the proper experience should immediately seek safe harbor.
TROPICAL CYCLONES
‘Fabian’, the sixth tropical cyclone for 2021, developed into Tropical Depression while inside PAR on Friday, July 16.
PAGASA predicts that 1–3 tropical cyclones may enter the PAR this month.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
The weather agency declared the onset of the rainy season on Friday, June 5.
— The Summit Express